The White House released the 2026 Economic Report of the President on April 13, claiming Trump had driven core inflation “down to 1.7%” in the last three months of 2025. The number was fabricated through a specific mathematical trick.
Core inflation was 2.6% in both November and December 2025 (BLS data). The BLS did not release an October 2025 figure because of the 43-day government shutdown. Trump's economists took the two available months (2.6 + 2.6 = 5.2), but divided by three months instead of two — effectively counting the missing October as zero. Result: 5.2 / 3 = 1.73%, rounded to 1.7%. The honest figure using the available data was 2.6%.
This was identified by Merrill Matthews — notably the Texas state chair of Our Republican Legacy, a Republican — writing in The Hill. Multiple economists told FactCheck.org and NBC News they “couldn't tell where Trump got that number.”
The report also claimed a “staggering 27%” deficit cut. The actual fiscal year comparison: FY2025 deficit was $1.78 trillion, down just 2.3% from FY2024's $1.82 trillion. The 27% figure was produced by cherry-picking calendar year months rather than using standard fiscal year accounting.
On manufacturing, the report touted a tariff-driven reshoring boom. Reality: the U.S. lost over 100,000 manufacturing jobs in Trump's first year. On the trade deficit, the report claimed a 77% reduction — achieved by comparing the single largest monthly deficit (March, inflated by pre-tariff front-loading) to the single smallest (October, depressed by the shutdown). Full-year trade deficit decreased just 0.2%.
The report was released three days after CPI data showed inflation surging to 3.3% annually, with gasoline up 21.2% in March alone — the largest monthly increase since 1967, driven by the Iran war oil shock.