On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty expired, leaving the United States and Russia without any binding limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than 50 years. Each country possesses approximately 4,000 nuclear warheads. The treaty, signed in 2010 under Presidents Obama and Medvedev, had limited each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and included critical verification measures—inspections and data exchanges that allowed each side to confirm the other's compliance.
Russia offered to continue observing the treaty's limits voluntarily for up to one year while a replacement was negotiated. Trump rejected this, instead demanding a new deal that includes China. China—which has approximately 600 warheads compared to 4,000 each for the US and Russia—refused to participate, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian making clear Beijing would not join bilateral arms-reduction talks.
The UN Secretary-General warned of a “grave moment” for global security. Arms control experts described the expiration as bringing the world back to “scary times” and risking a new nuclear arms race. Without the treaty's verification measures, neither side can confirm what the other is doing with its arsenal, creating dangerous uncertainty.
Trump indicated the treaty's expiration “was not a priority,” suggesting a new agreement could be negotiated later. But there is no framework, no timeline, and no negotiations underway. For the first time since the Cold War, the world's two largest nuclear powers are operating without guardrails.