The Department of Justice unsealed the first-ever prediction-market insider-trading indictment on April 23, 2026. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old active-duty U.S. Army soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, is charged with theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, and wire fraud. The alleged scheme: Van Dyke created a Polymarket account on or around December 26, 2025, then used classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve — the U.S. special-forces operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 — to place more than $33,000 in wagers on Maduro's removal. Alleged profits: more than $409,000.
DOJ officials: “That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.” Polymarket said insider trading “has no place” on its platform and stated that the company identified the suspicious account and referred the matter to the DOJ.
The Van Dyke indictment sits inside a broader Polymarket story that implicates Trump's own family. According to Fortune and Newsweek:
- **$413 million in bets** were placed on Iran war-related events between April 5-8, 2026 - **More than $100 million was at stake** across those wagers - Trading surges tracked Trump's market-moving Truth Social posts: the April 5 “Open the F---' Strait” post; the April 7 “whole civilization will die tonight” post (triggered the largest ceasefire-odds bet surge of the year); April 8 bets on troop deployment to Iran crossed 100,000 in a single day - Polymarket's valuation: $9.6 billion, a nearly tenfold increase in 8 months - **Donald Trump Jr.** serves as strategic adviser to Kalshi, a competing prediction market, and joined Polymarket's advisory board; Trump Media announced plans to launch its own prediction market - The Trump-era CFTC head has publicly promoted prediction platforms; Polymarket received permission to resume U.S. operations after a 2022 Biden-era ban was lifted - The Trump administration has sued states attempting to ban prediction markets
Economist Kwok Ping Tsang on the market's existence: “Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible. He's so unpredictable.”
Asked in the Oval Office on April 24 about Van Dyke's case and prediction markets generally, Trump said he was not aware of the soldier's case but would “look into it.” He characterized the modern world as “somewhat of a casino” and said he is “not happy with any of that stuff” regarding federal employees betting on prediction markets. He compared the situation to Pete Rose betting on baseball and said he was “never much in favor” of worldwide betting activities. He did not address his son's direct financial ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi.