At 10:47 a.m. on September 21, 2026, Trump posted: “The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus. The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.” Potash is the potassium fertilizer American farms depend on, and according to the U.S. Geological Survey the United States imports 79 per cent of it from Canada; Belarus supplied 3 per cent. The post gave no volumes, price, timing or route, and no U.S. agency has confirmed a deal. Shares of the fertilizer makers Mosaic and Nutrien briefly declined on the news, Seeking Alpha reported.
Belarus's own leader had already said there was nothing to sell. Earlier the same day Alexander Lukashenko told his customs chief that large volumes could not be supplied because, in the account of the independent Belarusian outlet Nasha Niva, “all fertilizers for this year have already been contracted.” Seeking Alpha reported the same: “essentially all of its 2026 production is already committed under existing contracts.” Belarus is also landlocked, and the European Union still bans its potash, including transit through the Baltic ports it used to ship from.
The claim sits on top of a sanctions decision that is fully documented. The Biden administration sanctioned the state producer Belaruskali in August 2021, calling it “a major source of tax revenue and foreign currency for the Lukashenka regime,” and added the Belarusian Potash Company that December, in coordination with the EU, Britain and Canada. Belarus had let Russia use its territory to invade Ukraine in 2022. Under Trump, sanctions relief became the currency in a series of prisoner exchanges negotiated by envoy John Coale. In December 2025, after Lukashenko freed 123 prisoners including the Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, the Treasury authorized business with the potash companies; AP reported, “In exchange, the U.S. said it was lifting sanctions on the Eastern European country's potash sector.” On March 26, 2026, after 250 more releases, the Treasury removed them from the sanctions list entirely. On September 16, Coale announced another round: “Belarus will release 25 people and in exchange the United States will lift sanctions on two companies.”
The relief did not stop at lifting American sanctions. In May, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty obtained an unsigned State Department paper asking Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to let Belarusian potash cross their territory: “Now that the United States has lifted US sanctions on Belaruskali, US firms are interested in acquiring and transporting Belarusian potash.” Ukraine's foreign ministry confirmed receiving it. The EU and Britain still list Belaruskali, and Canada still prohibits dealing in Belarusian potash.
The prisoner releases are real and should not be discounted. Hundreds of people, including American citizens, left prison; the sister of the freed opposition figure Maria Kalesnikava told Reuters that Kalesnikava was “thankful to the USA and Trump for their efforts in leading the process.” The opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya objects to the direction, not the releases: “We should use every opportunity to save lives. But we should not confuse releases with political change,” she said this month, and, “The purpose should be to empty the prisons, not to rehabilitate the dictatorship.” Trump's post turns relief granted for humanitarian reasons into a supply source he says will undercut Canada, an ally he is in a trade fight with (see Trump Slaps 50 Percent Tariffs on Most Canadian Goods Over Alcohol, Dairy, and Auto Disputes and Trump Says He's 'Not Looking to Renew' the USMCA Trade Deal: 'We Don't Need Anything' Canada or Mexico Has). No reaction from the Canadian or Ukrainian governments, farm groups or members of Congress had been published when this was written.