The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in preliminary April 2026 readings — the lowest in the survey's 74-year history, surpassing Biden's June 2022 nadir of 50 that Republicans weaponized through the 2024 campaign.
Three of the lowest consumer sentiment readings ever recorded have now occurred within the past nine months of Trump's second term. The decline was universal across all ages, income brackets, and political affiliations.
One-year inflation expectations surged from 3.8% to 4.8% — the largest single-month jump since April 2025's “Liberation Day” tariffs. Five-year expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025. Survey director Joanne Hsu: “Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy.”
The same day, BLS reported CPI surged 0.9% in March — the largest monthly increase since 1967, driven by energy prices jumping 10.9% in a single month and gasoline soaring 21.2%. Annual inflation hit 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February.
Note: 98% of interviews were completed before the April 7 ceasefire announcement, meaning data captures peak war anxiety and may partially recover. The Fortune article notes consumer sentiment has been a poor predictor of actual spending behavior since 2021 — unemployment remains near historic lows. But the political significance remains: the same metric Republicans used against Biden is now worse under Trump.