The Partnership for Public Service — a nonpartisan good-government organization — released an analysis on April 9, 2026 estimating that the Trump administration's federal workforce changes have cost the U.S. economy more than $165.6 billion. The findings were part of the organization's “Cost to Our Economy” tool.
The breakdown: $94.6 billion in lost economic activity from terminated science agency grants (EPA, CDC, NIH), based on peer-reviewed research showing every $1 invested in NIH yielded $2.56 in economic activity. An estimated $53.2 billion from disengaged federal employees, based on Gallup data showing disengaged workers cost organizations 34% of their salaries. $4.5 billion paid to 138,541 federal employees who accepted the Deferred Resignation Program and received months of pay while not working. $763.9 million in severance for 10,000+ laid-off employees. $443.9 million for 20,000+ probationary employees placed on paid leave while their terminations were challenged in court. And $12.1 million to rehire workers agencies needed back.
Partnership CEO Max Stier called it “the cost of chaos”: “This is an administration that has claimed that it is trying to reduce waste, and yet the choices that it has made have created phenomenally larger waste.”
The federal workforce shrank 10% in Trump's first year back — a net reduction of 238,000 positions, the largest one-year cut in 75 years, bringing staffing to levels not seen since 1966. Even right-leaning outlets (Washington Times, Fox Business) confirm the scale of cuts.
Note: The $165.6B figure includes both direct taxpayer costs (~$5.7 billion in DRP payments, severance, and administrative leave) and modeled economic impacts (~$147.8 billion from disengagement and lost grant multiplier effects). The Partnership acknowledged its survey methodology differs from OPM's cancelled FEVS survey. The White House did not respond to requests for comment.