A peer-reviewed study published in Choices (Agriculture and Applied Economics Association) by researchers at Cornell University and Ohio State University found that Trump's tariffs dealt an economic blow to all 50 states — with no state escaping the damage.
Lead author Wendong Zhang (Cornell): “The United States doesn't have one agricultural trade exposure — it has 50 different ones.” The study documented three mechanisms of harm: net importers absorbed levy payments directly, trading partners retaliated and crushed exports, and even non-trade-dependent states were hit by higher food prices as farmers passed costs to consumers.
Agricultural exports to China collapsed from $12 billion to $5.5 billion in the first half of 2025. China didn't buy a single cargo of new-crop soybeans for the 2025/26 season — the first time in two decades. Canada retaliated with tariffs on ~$30 billion in American goods, devastating Kentucky and Tennessee bourbon and whiskey industries. Northeast states lost roughly two-thirds of their milled grain, non-cereal crops, and live animal exports to Canada.
By 2026, U.S. businesses and consumers were covering approximately 90% of tariff costs according to Federal Reserve research. A separate NY Fed/Columbia study found 94% in the first eight months. Zhang: “Eventually, the consumer in a New York grocery store is paying more for something that traces back to a trade dispute in Washington — even if New York itself exports very little.”
The International Food Policy Research Institute projected U.S. agrifood imports from Mexico could fall 46% and from Canada 60%.